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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward pattern. It commonly serves as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your team in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who engineered the largest turnaround is handed the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or just the greatest surprise.

However this year's field is profoundly unique. The group of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners declining and longtime strugglers rising in unison. In an normal season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's competing with several other elite candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his rare ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to create magic from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost every bet – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the level of hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet this isn't a typical year!

Where his case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the leadership stuff, which was not a guarantee after his early public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

After an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse had the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still